Categories
Future

Asian markets skid on jitters over future U.S. Fed action


BANGKOK —
Asian markets skidded on Monday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 index down 3.4%, after a sell-off Friday on Wall Street gave the S&P 500 its worst weekly loss since February.

Investors are still recalibrating their moves after the Federal Reserve’s signal last week that it may raise current ultra-low rates sooner than had been expected. That gave the Dow Jones Industrial Average its worst weekly loss since last October.

Part of the Fed’s mission is to keep prices under control. The fear is that burgeoning inflation may prompt central banks to dial back the lavish support that has lifted markets to new highs after they plunged at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic last year.

Until its latest policy meeting, last week, the Fed had indicated it viewed recent price hikes as transient and would let the recovering economy run hot. Now it’s forecasting raising interest rates twice in 2023.

“The shift to an earlier timeline for a rate hike, accompanied with an upward revision in core inflation forecast to 3%, seems to suggest that the Fed may still be concerned about inflationary pressures to some extent as opposed to its previous stance of letting inflation run wild,” Yeap Jun Rong of IG said in a commentary.

South Korea reported its exports rose nearly 30% in the first 20 days of June in the latest indication that the region’s recovery is steaming ahead despite lingering outbreaks of infections in many places.

The Nikkei gave up 983 points to 27,980.87 and the Kospi in Seoul lost 1.3% to 3,227.92. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index also lost 1.3%, to 28,427.13. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.7% to 7,243.50 and the Shanghai Composite index declined 0.3%, to 3,514.61.

On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3% to 4,166.45 in a broad retreat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.6%, to 33,290.08. The Nasdaq composite fell 0.9% to 14,030.38.

The Fed also has begun talks about slowing its US$120 billion of monthly bond purchases, which are helping to keep mortgages and other longer-term borrowing cheap. But the Fed’s chair has said such a tapering is still likely a ways away.

Markets were spooked after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Friday on CNBC that his personal prediction was that the first rate increase may come as soon as next year.

It’s an acknowledgment that a rebounding economy with near-record prices for homes and stocks may not need super low rates much longer. A recent burst of inflation may also be upping the pressure. But any pullback in Fed support would be a big change for markets, which have been feasting on ultra-low rates for more than a year.

The Dow industrials lost 3.5% last week. The Nasdaq composite, which has more high-growth tech stocks, dipped a much more modest 0.3%.

Still, the major U.S. stock indexes remain relatively close to their record highs, as the economy continues to leap out of the recession caused by the pandemic. The S&P 500 is only about 2% below its all-time high set on Monday, and the Dow is within 5% of its record set last month.

A measure of nervousness in the stock market, known as the VIX, rose Friday but is only back to where it was about a month ago.

The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 1.40% on Monday from 1.43% late Friday.

In other trading, U.S. benchmark crude oil rose 45 cents to $72.09 per barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It gained 60 cents to $71.64 on Friday. Brent crude, the international standard, picked up 35 cents to $73.86 per barrel.

The U.S. dollar was at 109.83 Japanese yen, down from 110.27 on Friday. The euro was unchanged at $1.1861.





Source link

Categories
Future

Stock Futures Rise, Bitcoin Regains Some Ground After Multi-Month Lows


U.S. stock futures rose and bond yields crept lower as investors grew more comfortable with the inflation outlook and the pace of the economic recovery.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 added 0.5%, pointing to a positive start to the week after the broad-market index fell moderately for two weeks in a row. Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.7%, suggesting gains for technology stocks after the opening bell.

Investors are keeping a close eye on inflation indicators to determine whether a rise in prices will be temporary or longer-term. Companies that are able to pass along higher costs to consumers such as in energy and materials have been an increasingly popular trade, while technology companies’ shares and bonds have lagged.

“Inflation concerns have lessened, there’s more of a wider recognition that inflation will be transitory,” said Fahad Kamal, chief investment officer at Kleinwort Hambros. “This is reflecting the fact that we hit the fastest part of the recovery. Growth, while continuing, is going to be at a decelerating pace.”

In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note declined to 1.618% Monday from 1.629% Friday. Yields fall when prices rise.

Cryptocurrencies continued a dramatic stretch of trading. Bitcoin regained some ground after touching multi-month lows Sunday and traded around $36,450, a 3.4% rise from Friday at 5 p.m. ET. The cryptocurrency has lost over 40% of its value since its mid-April peak.

“Decentralized finance is facing its first real challenge since inception. We don’t think that this is the end, the bubble has not really popped yet,” said Monica Defend, global head of research at Amundi. “Central banks are ready to play in the digital currency field, I expect with the central banks in play, there will be more regulation to come and more transparency.”

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which is seen as a gauge of economic activity and inflationary pressure, will be published at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lael Brainard will be speaking about digital currencies at a virtual event organized by CoinDesk at 9 a.m.

Earnings season is winding down. This week, technology companies including

Nvidia

on Wednesday and

Salesforce.com

and Dell Technologies on Thursday, are set to report.

In premarket trading, Moderna rose 2.2% after striking a deal with

Samsung’s

biotech division to manufacture its Covid-19 vaccines in South Korea.

In commodities, global benchmark Brent crude rose 1.8% to $67.65 a barrel. Analysts at

Goldman Sachs

put out a note on Sunday with a forecast that it will reach $80 by summer.

“It’s still kind of punching in the green light for inflation flows into commodities,” said Gregory Shearer, a commodities analyst at JPMorgan. But the Federal Reserve minutes last week, “where they began to talk about tapering, this makes people somewhat less concerned about [inflation] running away out of hand.”

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 was relatively flat, wavering between small gains and losses. Monday is a public holiday in several European countries, including Germany and Denmark.

Among European equities, IT services company Solutions 30 plunged over 70% after auditor EY declined to sign off on its accounts.

In Asia, major benchmarks were mixed. The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.3% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 0.2%.

Investors are growing more comfortable with the inflation outlook.



Photo:

Courtney Crow/Associated Press

Write to Anna Hirtenstein at [email protected]

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8



Source link

Categories
Future

Stock Futures Edge Down After S&P 500 Hits Record


U.S. stock futures edged lower Friday as investors assessed fresh waves of Covid-19 infections globally that could hamper global supply chains and drive up inflation.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 ticked down almost 0.3%, a day after it closed at a record. The broad market index remains on track for its best month since November. Nasdaq-100 futures declined 0.3%, suggesting that technology shares may be among the weakest performers after the opening bell.

Rising Covid-19 cases in Brazil and India and signs of weakening in China’s manufacturing sector are sapping some of the optimism that took the major indexes up to all-time highs earlier in the week. New variants are threatening to hobble global travel, convulse supply chains further and slow the recovery, investors say.

Signs that the U.S. growth is accelerating are also stoking concern that inflation may rise too much, driven by a persistent shortage of products like electronic chips and the prospect of more fiscal stimulus flooding markets. Persistent inflation can erode portfolio returns.

“That is where the market is, wrestling between those two,” said Edward Park, chief investment officer at Brooks Macdonald.

If the supply constraints and inflationary factors extend into next year, “the growth parts of the markets, which are supported by this ultra cheap money environment, will struggle,” he added.

New economic data from China weighed on sentiment, with official gauges for manufacturing falling short of expectations in April. China’s statistics bureau said global chip shortages, international logistics jams and rising delivery costs have weighed on factory operations.

Increased costs for businesses due to supply-chain issues could be passed on to consumers, boosting prices, investors said.

High cases of Covid-19 in India, Brazil and Japan have bolstered concerns that new variants could emerge and spread globally. A variant of the coronavirus first spotted in India has been detected in the U.S. and 18 other countries and territories. Another variant from Brazil that has been detected in more than 30 nations.

“The third wave is the big thing,” Mr. Park said. “The greater the case count, the greater the chance a new variant is created that unwinds a lot of the good work being done in the vaccine rollout program.”

In bond markets, optimism about U.S. growth prospects—stemming from better-than-expected corporate earnings, signs of the labor market’s recovery, and President Biden’s new $1.8 trillion spending proposal—have encouraged money managers to sell government bonds, considered the safest assets. There are also growing concerns that inflation could curtail the returns from fixed-income securities, and from stocks that are richly valued for their future cash flow.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 1.645% from 1.639% Thursday, and is poised to extend its advance for five of the past six days. Yields rise when prices fall.

“You’re seeing a lot of companies reporting pricing pressures, supply chain disruptions, coupled with all this extra stimulus coming through from the U.S. that is why people are now really starting to focus on inflation,” said Edward Smith, head of asset allocation research at U.K. investment firm Rathbone Investment Management. “Persistent inflation beyond spring is the biggest risk to markets this year, because it could cause the Fed to taper and hike interest rates sooner than expected.”

Investors are likely to continue monitoring earnings, with energy giants

Chevron

and

Exxon Mobil

set to disclose results before the opening bell.

Fresh figures on U.S. consumer spending, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to show a rebound in March. Economists anticipate that Americans boosted spending as warmer weather and the vaccine rollout encouraged people to spend stimulus checks and savings.

Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 edged 0.1% higher.

Most major indexes in Asia declined by the close of trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed almost 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index, South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei 225 each fell 0.8%.

Endeavor CEO Ariel Emanuel, fourth left, rang the New York Stock Exchange opening bell on Thursday to celebrate his company’s IPO.



Photo:

Courtney Crow/Associated Press

Write to Caitlin Ostroff at [email protected]

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8



Source link

Categories
Future

Stocks Drop Amid Powell’s Testimony


U.S. stocks edged down Tuesday as investors digested testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the U.S. economy.

The S&P 500 ticked down 0.8% as of the 4 p.m. close of trading in New York. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%.

Mr. Powell, in a joint appearance with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, reiterated in a congressional hearing that the central bank will continue providing support to the economy through loose monetary policy. Mr. Powell also said he doesn’t expect the $1.9 trillion stimulus package will lead to an increase in inflation, but he emphasized that the central bank has tools to deal with rising price pressures if necessary.

Investors are also reassessing their expectations for a fast and widespread global recovery, which had led to rising bets earlier this year that companies sensitive to an economic recovery would benefit. Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and recent extensions to lockdowns in Germany, France and Italy are also weighing on sentiment.

“It feels like the reflation theme is running into a few roadblocks,” said Sebastian Mackay, a multiasset fund manager at Invesco. “We are probably in a cyclical recovery, but we may have gotten ahead of ourselves. This is a pause for thought: how rapid is this recovery actually going to be?”



Source link